2020.04.04 12:53
Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
2020.04.04 13:20
2020.04.04 14:08
How about following the number of hospital admissions and ICU admissions?
Total number of cases are certainly meaningless because it is test dependent. If you
want to count asymptomatic cases, you have to test the entire population.
Trending hospital and ICU admissions will be consistent enough to set the policies on the treatment
and preventive measures in the country where medical care is reasonably good.
This is a very long, comprehensive analysis of the complicated question.
In short, unless you do the test extensively and fast, the case number loses meaning
in all those efforts trying to save lives.
For example, the low case number in CA is meaningless because of the tremendous backlog,
but the case number in NY is meaningful in dealing with the virus.
Another example is the United Kingdom vs Germany.
Germany which follows the South Korea model has meaningful case numbers whereas
United Kingdom's case numbers are meaningless as explained in the article.
It seems obvious that the true case number of USA is well over a million, and
that of the world must be multimillion at the least.