2020.10.01 18:45
Betting markets increasingly like Biden as Trump bump evaporates after raucous debate Javier E. David ·Editor focused on markets and the economy
Former Vice President Joe Biden has retaken the momentum among political bettors, with investors increasingly persuaded the Democratic nominee will prevail in his bid to deny President Donald Trump a second term after a fiery presidential debate.
In line with public opinion polls showing Biden consolidating his support among the electorate, a snapshot of predictive markets on Wednesday reflected the growing belief that the Democrat not only prevailed in his first face-to-face match up with the president, but is poised to win in November.
Smarkets data pegged Biden’s odds at 62%, with Trump’s chances dwindling proportionately, to 38% —a sharp reversal of the momentum the president demonstrated just before Labor Day. Meanwhile, U.K.-based Oddschecker found that the former VP’s implied probability has shot up to over 58% while Trump’s has fallen to around 42% — the market’s biggest swing since April. And Bookies.com showed Biden’s odds improving immediately following the raucous debate, in which both candidates took pointed shots at each other.
As a result, several observers now think Biden’s coattails are long enough to pull off a sweep of the Senate — putting the levers of Washington entirely under Democratic control. Smarkets estimates that outcome at 60%, which would diminish anxiety surrounding a contested campaign that drags on beyond November.
As the incumbent, Trump has certain advantages to his credit. However, even as the economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic continues apace, the president has come under withering criticism for his management of a crisis that’s claimed over 1 million lives worldwide.
The halting recovery has been made more uncertain by a resurgence in coronavirus infections, widespread social unrest and deadlocked talks on new stimulus. Trump entered the debate on the defensive, and the event descended into chaos amid the president’s testy exchanges with both Biden and the moderator.
“The advantage was Biden’s to lose and there were fears from a Democratic perspective that a bad performance would play into President Trump’s hands,” said Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets’ head of political markets.
Yet Biden’s steady performance — a sentiment echoed by a focus group run by prominent Republican pollster Frank Luntz — “seems to have inspired some faith in Biden amongst customers on Smarkets,” Bakhshi added.
The chaotic aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with months of protests against social injustice, inverted what was once Trump’s strongest incumbent asset: A strong economy and a stunning rebound on Wall Street from a deep sell-off in March. However, violence roiling major cities of Portland, Seattle, and Kenosha have scrambled the race, highlighting the president’s emphasis on law and order.
Indeed, that became a flashpoint in Tuesday’s debate, with Trump attempting to link left-wing activist group Antifa to Biden — only to stumble badly when asked to denounce the Proud Boys, a male, far-right group associated with white supremacy.
However, the economy, which remains surprisingly durable in the face of the COVID-19 crisis, may yet bolster the president. The economy created a robust 1.37 million jobs in August, and stock markets, while highly volatile, are still in an upswing. Simultaneously, the government-backed search for a coronavirus vaccine may yield fruit before year’s end. Just a month ago, that backdrop had helped Trump quietly retake the offensive in several key swing states, according to a Real Clear Politics average.
“With two more debates to go, traders will be factoring in an estimation of Biden’s stamina as to whether he can hold the line against Trump’s attacks, knowing that if he falters, he could end up boosting the president’s hopes of a second term,” Bakhshi said.
|
No. | Subject | Date | Author | Last Update | Views |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notice | How to write your comments onto a webpage [2] | 2016.07.06 | 운영자 | 2016.11.20 | 18173 |
Notice | How to Upload Pictures in webpages | 2016.07.06 | 운영자 | 2018.10.19 | 32323 |
Notice | How to use Rich Text Editor [3] | 2016.06.28 | 운영자 | 2018.10.19 | 5903 |
Notice | How to Write a Webpage | 2016.06.28 | 운영자 | 2020.12.23 | 43819 |
1642 | 영화: 나랏 말싸미 [3] | 2020.09.25 | 온기철*71 | 2020.09.27 | 83 |
1641 | Golf Snakes [1] | 2020.09.27 | 운영자 | 2020.09.27 | 83 |
1640 | 6.28-9.28. 1950 공산치하의 서울 | 2020.09.28 | 온기철*71 | 2020.09.28 | 116 |
1639 | 9.28 서울 수복의 의미를 되새기며... [2] | 2020.09.28 | 운영자 | 2020.09.28 | 166 |
1638 | 18 Revelations from Trump Tax Records [10] | 2020.09.28 | 이한중*65 | 2020.09.29 | 565 |
1637 | GLOOMY SUNDAY [4] | 2020.09.27 | 이병붕*63 | 2020.09.29 | 902 |
1636 | 코스모스 [5] | 2020.09.27 | 노영일*68 | 2020.09.30 | 201 |
1635 | 金剛經(금강경) 제1회 [3] | 2020.09.30 | 정관호*63 | 2020.09.30 | 119 |
1634 | Avicenna who shaped modern science, medicine & philosophy [4] | 2020.09.29 | 이한중*65 | 2020.09.30 | 5458 |
1633 | Trump Is a Genius [9] | 2020.09.29 | 이한중*65 | 2020.09.30 | 111 |
1632 | 4 Centuries of Trying To Prove God's Existence [3] | 2020.09.29 | 이한중*65 | 2020.09.30 | 173 |
1631 | 중국모델의 환상 [1] | 2020.09.30 | 온기철*71 | 2020.10.01 | 46 |
1630 | 2020 The First Presidential Debate [5] | 2020.09.29 | 운영자 | 2020.10.01 | 161 |
1629 | Imagine your Korea [3] | 2020.10.01 | 온기철*71 | 2020.10.01 | 60 |
» | Las Vegas' odds in favor of Biden [1] | 2020.10.01 | 운영자 | 2020.10.01 | 122 |
1627 | Trump May Quarantine Himself [8] | 2020.10.01 | 이한중*65 | 2020.10.02 | 104 |
1626 | COVID Deaths In U.S. By Age, Race [3] | 2020.10.02 | 운영자 | 2020.10.02 | 139 |
1625 | [Medical] JFK & Addison's Disease [6] | 2020.10.01 | 이한중*65 | 2020.10.02 | 272 |
1624 | What I Saw Today at the White House [5] | 2020.10.02 | 이한중*65 | 2020.10.03 | 101 |
1623 | 암암리에 전개되는 미국의 제국주의적 전략 [1] | 2020.10.04 | 운영자 | 2020.10.04 | 46 |
In desperation of getting rid of Trump out of the White House, as if a drowning man
trying to hold on a straw, I searched the opinions of gamblers and stockbrokers who were
in favor of Biden. Here is one that says Biden has a better chance. At least what a relief is it!
I don't know how long the euphoria may last though.
However, the general opinions and views were that Trump's interference during the debate
was scorned. No matter how smartly Trump tried to cheat, people seem to know the truth.
Trump should have known that it's not easy to cheat people. The smart man shot his own feet.