2019.05.17 07:31
http://theconversation.com/a-new-world-is-dawning-and-the-us-will-no-longer-lead-it-98362
(The Conversation: A New World is Dawning and the U.S. will no longer Lead It)
The power shifts are increasingly visible. In the Middle East, the U.S. hoped for decades
to isolate Iran as a pariah and weaken the regime until it fell.
Today, that goal is unimaginable, though national security adviser John Bolton continues
to imagine it.
Iran is and will remain an increasingly assertive and influential power in the region,
defending and promoting its interests and competing with the Saudi regime.
- from the text
While the U.S. continues to have the world’s only global military capability, able to deploy
anywhere, it is no longer evident that this capability effectively sustains U.S. leadership.
Clear military victories are few – the Gulf War in 1991 being an exception. The endless
U.S. deployment in Afghanistan carries the whiff of Vietnam in its inability to resolve that
country’s civil war.
- from the text
North Korea behaves more and more like a regional power, winning a direct meeting with
the U.S. president while making only a general commitment to denuclearize. The prospect
of a unified Korea would bring into being another major regional power center in the Northern Pacific.
-from the text
A neo-conservative foreign policy, featuring unilateral American military intervention, as favored by John Bolton,
will only accelerate the global shift. Liberal internationalists like Hillary Clinton would fail as well, because
the rest of the world rejects the assumption that the U.S. is “indispensable” and “exceptional.” Barack Obama
appeared to recognize the changing reality, but continued to argue that only the U.S. could lead the international system.
- from the text
2019.05.18 02:05
2019.05.18 09:56
Realistic U.S. concern of NK nuclear capability is nuclear proliferation among
nations in NE Asia because it will be hard for U.S. to keep them under her control.
However, SK will be much more independent of U.S. if she becomes nuclear nation.
I doubt that U.S. will allow Japan to be armed with nuclear weapons by herself.
But if so, why not SK?
"Cold military logic would suggest that Japan and South Korea, in agreement with the United States,
should build their own arsenals.
This step would contribute to making Tokyo and Seoul masters of their own destinies
and reduce the risk that U.S. territory becomes the target of a nuclear attack."
Does it mean that South Korea and Japan may build their own nuclear weapons?
Why don't they do it?
One can not win the war just by floating aircraft carrier fleets on the nearby ocean.