2021.07.21 21:03
In the interview, Zarif said that if the Afghan government was “willing,” it could take control of the Fatemiyoun within Afghanistan, to “fight against Daesh [ISIS] and for the fight against terrorism and for the protection of Afghanistan security.”
*Could Afghan government be secured by Iran? It would be interesting to see what happens in Afghanistan
after U.S. leaves. No matter what, a civil war is certain. The Fatemiyoun and Afghan government may fight
against Taliban. Then would Iran be the next victim?
2021.07.22 06:34
2021.07.23 15:27
https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/the-fatemiyoun-army-irans-afghan-crusaders-in-syria/
The problem does not end with Afghanistan, however. The Fatemiyoun is but one of the many actors within Iran’s new transnational network of Shia groups that operate on an ideology of “pan-Shia militancy” in a region riddled with conflict. As the self-declared custodian of Shia Islam, the Iranian regime faces numerous adversaries, including the Sunni Gulf states, Israel, and, of course ,the United States. In the face of this presumed “existential threat,” Iran seeks to utilize any and all means to ensure its survival and advance its interests. Loyal proxy groups, like the Fatemiyoun Army, provide Tehran with a cost-effective means to confront its stronger foes, and wield substantial leverage over the region’s affairs. Most security agencies, including those of the Afghan government in which I served, have thus far downplayed the group’s significance. But my five-year close study of the group leads me to believe that the Fatemiyoun is poised to become a second Hezbollah within Tehran’s proxy arsenal.
2021.07.23 15:53
https://news.stanford.edu/2021/07/19/whats-next-afghanistan/
How do you teach the war in Afghanistan to your students, many of whom have lived their entire lives with the U.S. involved in combat in the country?
I encourage them to question the dominant narratives about Afghanistan. Instead of seeing a supposedly “medieval,” violent and inward-looking place inhabited by fanatical warriors, we explore the country as an epicenter of global politics. Afghan lives are connected in innumerable ways with our own. We share a common, intertwined history. And because there are so many brilliant Afghan artists, writers, musicians and thinkers, we draw on art, literature and film to try to understand the humanity that we share with them. Studying Afghanistan is also an opportunity to question the uses of American power around the world and to ask, “What do we owe societies that we transform through military violence?”
https://news.joins.com/article/24111063?cloc=joongang-home-opinioncolumn
반면 중국을 주적으로 삼을 경우 부대 운용과 전략도 바뀌게 된다. 테러단체와는 달리 중국군은 실체가 명확하다. 어디에, 어떤 상태로 존재하는지 알 수 있다는 얘기다. 따라서 미군도 여기에 맞춰 운용하게 된다. 물론 지역적으로는 아시아가 중시된다.
현재 중국은 해양세력인 미국이 바다를 통해 공격해 오는 것을 해안선 및 근해에서 막아내는 소위 '반(反) 접근·지역거부(A2/AD)'전략을 기본으로 삼고 있다. 미국은 이를 분쇄하기 위해 주둔군 증강 정책을 추구하는 만큼 닉슨 독트린과는 달리 주한미군 강화 정책이 추진될 가능성도 있다.
[출처: 중앙일보] [남정호의 퍼스펙티브] 미 글로벌 전략 '테러와의 전쟁'에서 '중국 견제'로